A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
