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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving together. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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